Scenario one

The business impact of rising protectionism

Starting the conversation

The steady rise of protectionism and regulatory fragmentation is reshaping the commercial environment in which global businesses operate. Shifting trade policies, divergent standards, and increasingly assertive regulators are creating legal and operational challenges across multiple jurisdictions.

Even minor changes can disrupt supply chains, trigger contractual disputes, and expose businesses to conflicting compliance obligations. A uniform 'one-size-fits-all' approach is no longer sustainable. To safeguard enterprise value and pursue growth opportunities, businesses will need tailored legal strategies, informed by both local expertise and a clear global framework.

We are launching a podcast series to explore the future disputes landscape and the key areas of risk businesses are facing over the next decade. In our first episode, we'll be exploring each of the areas of risk below, tackling the questions GCs and boards need to be addressing now to strengthen resilience for the future.

Key areas of risk

Regulatory and enforcement pressures

Regulatory fragmentation is intensifying. Companies face overlapping or inconsistent obligations, requiring careful navigation to avoid inadvertent breaches.
Regulators are more active in issuing pre-enforcement requests and launching investigations. Early, strategic engagement with regulators can mitigate risk and preserve goodwill.
Enforcement actions carry significant financial and reputational consequences. Boards must adopt proactive compliance programmes and ensure that contentious regulatory advice is readily available to minimise impact.

Commercial and financial disputes

Supply chain disruption and policy shifts are driving a rise in cross-border contractual disputes, as parties seek to exit unfavourable agreements.
Labour disputes are increasing as companies restructure operations to adapt to new trade and regulatory realities.
Market volatility creates scope for financial mis-selling claims and litigation linked to innovative products.

Fraud and corruption risks

Divergent regulations and gaps in oversight heighten exposure to bribery, corruption, and fraudulent practices, particularly in emerging or deregulated markets.

Litigation and arbitration

The inoperability of multilateral dispute mechanisms, such as the WTO, has fuelled demand for international arbitration. However, losing parties are increasingly challenging awards in domestic courts, adding a further layer of complexity.
Divergent product standards across jurisdictions expose businesses to greater product liability and recall risks. Legal foresight and proactive planning is needed to mitigate disputes before they escalate.

Technology and innovation

Accelerated investment in green technologies and the transition away from fossil fuels is driving new regulation and litigation, with courts increasingly willing to hold global companies accountable for environmental harm.

Given the increased complexity and costs associated with any disputes, boards should remain mindful of the financial position of the company. Where the financial impact strays into financial stress, boards will want to consider what that means for the appropriate discharge of their fiduciary duties. We can help clients navigate these complex issues.

Amy Patterson Partner, Restructuring and Insolvency, UK

Regulatory and enforcement pressures

Regulatory fragmentation is intensifying. Companies face overlapping or inconsistent obligations, requiring careful navigation to avoid inadvertent breaches.
Regulators are more active in issuing pre-enforcement requests and launching investigations. Early, strategic engagement with regulators can mitigate risk and preserve goodwill.
Enforcement actions carry significant financial and reputational consequences. Boards must adopt proactive compliance programmes and ensure that contentious regulatory advice is readily available to minimise impact.

Commercial and financial disputes

Supply chain disruption and policy shifts are driving a rise in cross-border contractual disputes, as parties seek to exit unfavourable agreements.
Labour disputes are increasing as companies restructure operations to adapt to new trade and regulatory realities.
Market volatility creates scope for financial mis-selling claims and litigation linked to innovative products.

Fraud and corruption risks

Divergent regulations and gaps in oversight heighten exposure to bribery, corruption, and fraudulent practices, particularly in emerging or deregulated markets.

Litigation and arbitration

The inoperability of multilateral dispute mechanisms, such as the WTO, has fuelled demand for international arbitration. However, losing parties are increasingly challenging awards in domestic courts, adding a further layer of complexity.
Divergent product standards across jurisdictions expose businesses to greater product liability and recall risks. Legal foresight and proactive planning is needed to mitigate disputes before they escalate.

Technology and innovation

Accelerated investment in green technologies and the transition away from fossil fuels is driving new regulation and litigation, with courts increasingly willing to hold global companies accountable for environmental harm.

Despite the high level of awareness of regulatory risk, 61% of businesses in our research who have faced disruptive economic policies involving industrial, fiscal, and monetary change over the last 10 years have adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, responding to events as they emerge.

More than half of organisations responded reactively to geopolitical divergence typified by Brexit, frosty US-China relations, treaty withdrawals, and the severing of diplomatic ties. While some organisations adopt this stance strategically, others can struggle with the sheer weight of regulation in play.

The readiness gap: a checklist for disputes resilience

A cultural shift is needed. Leaders must involve in-house Legal in strategic decision-making and risk management as a strategic partner. Connecting stakeholders across the business with Legal at an early stage, in areas like product development, policy design, communications, risk assessments, and compliance, will determine whether businesses remain reactive or conflict ready.

Our research shows:

of leaders see agility as critical to their organisation's survival in the next decade.

expect disputes budgets to rise in the next 10 years, yet only 45% rate their current disputes risk management efforts as successful.

believe weak legal risk management leads to unsustainable disputes expenses.

Clients need to be agile, but agility requires the right structures and the right mindset. That’s where we come in: building legal readiness into the fabric of how they operate.

Andrew Howell Partner and Executive Board member, UK

To close this gap, businesses should embed disputes readiness into strategy and operations across 10 key areas.

Strategy

Work with Legal to build disputes management into your business strategy from the start and implement litigation life cycle planning early on for major transactions and partnerships.

Training

Provide regular training across risk areas, including compliance risks, contract management, early-warning systems, dispute resolution handling (such as document governance and legal privilege), incident response, and crisis communications.

Insurance

Review portfolios (D&O, product liability, business interruption) to ensure alignment with evolving risks and innovation.

Due diligence

Strengthen supply chain questionnaires, third-party audits, and contractual protections.

When people are under commercial pressure to get deals done, they risk skipping over key clauses… Later, when the contract is being picked apart in a dispute, they ask: ‘How did we agree to this?'

Ryan Ferry Partner, Disputes and Investigations, Ireland

Crisis planning

Update and stress-test incident response plans and ensure alignment with reputation management and PR; 51% currently lack crisis preparation.

It’s not just about spending money – it’s about spending it wisely to safeguard the future of the organisation.

Philippe Glaser Partner, Disputes and Investigations, France

Horizon scanning

Monitor regulatory shifts, use AI/tech, and engage Legal early to assess scope (only 29% do so at the strategic stage).

Even the most sophisticated businesses are struggling with regulatory overload. They're asking: how does it apply to our business, how do we prioritise, and how do we prepare for what’s coming? The advent of AI is an opportunity to address that challenge and – in our experience – adopting innovative horizon scanning tools is an increasingly essential exercise.

Alison Dennis Partner, Life Sciences, UK

Compliance and auditing

Conduct regular internal/external audits supported by third parties; embed early-warning systems and risk mapping; involve Legal early on risk assessments and compliance planning.

Technology

Use technology to track compliance, monitor contracts and supply chains, and manage multijurisdictional risk and the co-ordination of global claims.

Cross-practice and trend monitoring

Bring Legal, Risk, PR, and Tech together; monitor litigation trends like the rise of class actions, litigation funding, legaltech/AI, and ADR and update internal processes and procedures, as needed.

Post-dispute evaluation

Take stock after a dispute. Conduct a post-mortem to identify lessons learnt and to help improve future readiness.

Clients often move on too quickly following a dispute. That is understandable given the need to get back to business but a post-mortem is helpful. We always try to sit down with our clients post-resolution and ask: what did we learn, and how can we prepare better next time?

Mark Goorts Partner, Disputes and Investigations, Netherlands